The First Two Stages of the Systemic Analysis of the Plan for the Reconstruction of Ukraine's Energy Sector Towards Integration of Renewable Sources

Abstract

The first two stages of the system analysis of the plan for the reconstruction and development of Ukraine's energy industry aimed at integration of the renewable sources, i.e., the plan developed by a group of specialists under the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and published in July 2022, have been implemented. The systematic analysis is carried out, firstly, with the aim of producing more realistic estimates, considering the damage caused by the bombing of Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities during the year, the countdown of which begins from the day of the invasion of the Russian occupation forces into the territory of Ukraine in February 2022. Secondly, a systematic analysis is carried out to outline more realistic trajectories of the further development of the Ukrainian energy industry, conditioned by these refined estimates of damages. According to the ideology of system analysis, this method is implemented in five stages. The first stage includes the outline of the research object, the setting of tasks and the definition of criteria for evaluating the obtained results. The second stage is dedicated to distinguishing the object of research from the surrounding environment and determining the points, lines or surfaces of contact of this object with the surrounding environment and clarifying the limitations in the field of which the object of research implements the program of functioning embedded in it. The third stage includes the synthesis of mathematical models of the processes taking place in the research object. The fourth stage includes the choice of the method and the results of the research and their evaluation, obtained using the mathematical models synthesized in the third stage and the criteria selected in the first stage. The fifth stage is dedicated to optimizing the functioning of the research object in case the researchers are not satisfied with the results obtained at the fourth stage of the system analysis. From the disclosure of the essence of all stages of the system analysis, it is clear that it is not possible to include all the material obtained at each of its five stages in one publication, therefore, in the first article on the system analysis of the plan for the reconstruction and development of the energy industry of Ukraine in the direction of the renewable sources integration, only the materials obtained as a result of the implementation of the first two stages of the system analysis are included.